Energy Value-Chain Screen

Oil & Gas Universe

Each name scored against its own layer of true peers on five fundamentals-led axes, a long-term entry tool for 1 to 5 year holds, not a trading signal.

Last updated
Jun 12, 2026
Live · FMP · benchmark XLE
The Oil & Gas Space · 2026-06-12
A structural floor under prices, but heavy near-term — wait for the trigger40% odds of a price spike by September; high confidence in the floor

The peace-deal side of the ledger gained a third independent voice with a believable political motive: the analysts at Forward Guidance argue the administration is deliberately engineering de-escalation with Iran to protect the SpaceX stock offering and avoid +80% gasoline prices before the midterm elections — and that demand destruction from high prices is underappreciated. Trump has declared the war over (Iran denies anything is final; the stated red lines remain unmet). But the physical tail risk is undiminished if talks fail: the Strait of Hormuz — the channel carrying a fifth of the world's oil — remains shut, US diesel inventories sit at 23-year lows, and losing the region's 13-14 million barrels per day would empty global storage by August-September. Too early to add; favor the cash-generating end of the sector (refiners, large producers).

Voices: Gordon Johnson (analyst — the missile math, deal skeptic), Matt Smith of Kpler (shipping data — the $200 rupture case), Larry McDonald (oil services as the under-owned angle), Jeff Currie (commodities authority — energy weighting), Forward Guidance (the political de-escalation case)
Dissent: Johnson: no durable agreement is likely — a memorandum has no treaty force, and drones kept flying at Hormuz shipping during the talks. The physical risk outlives the headlines.
Changes my mind: Hormuz reopens or the US-backed shipping-insurance vehicle restarts Gulf traffic (kills the spike case); WTI reclaims $89 and then $107 (revives it).
Last change: 2026-06-12 — spike odds cut 45% to 40% on the third deal-side voice with a political mechanism plus demand destruction
How to read this page

Every company is scored only against its true peer group on four axes — Value (price vs earnings), Quality (profitability, debt), Trend (price momentum), Analysts (Wall Street view). Green letters = strong vs peers, red = weak. SCREEN+ means top of its peer group and SCREEN− bottom — these are research rankings that flag where to look next, not buy or sell orders. Click any company row for a plain-English read.

Today's triage relative rankings, top and bottom of each peer cohort — candidates for the diligence checklist, not recommendations
SCREEN+ · 7
SCREEN− · 8
DIVERGENCES
none — model and roster agree
ENERGY SPACE TEMPERATURE how extended the universe is right now — context, not in the per-name scores
cold · oversold → deploy82 · Hothot · extended → be selective
Backdrop: VIX 19 (calm) · Energy (XLE) +14% vs 200-day (risk-on) · 91% of energy names above their 200-day MA
INTEGRATED & LARGE E&P majors & large-cap producers · 5 names · click a row for the read
#NameScreenScoreAxes V·Q·T·ARosterPriceValuation
1 AR SCREEN+ +1.84 VQTA · $34.91 +2.0% 7× EBITDA
+16% FCF · 2.8× sales · Fwd P/E 7×
Screen+ (top of cohort): fairly valued, average quality, mid-trend, analysts bullish — top of its layer.
Quality ROIC 6% ND/EBITDA 2.2 · Trend 200d -1% · 52w 33% · RS1y -47% · Analysts upside +46% · rating +0.70
2 EQT +0.16 VQTA · $52.16 +1.9% 5× EBITDA
+12% FCF · 3.8× sales · Fwd P/E 11×
Mid-cohort: fairly valued, average quality, on an attractive pullback, analysts cautious.
Quality ROIC 9% ND/EBITDA 0.7 · Trend 200d -8% · 52w 16% · RS1y -40% · Analysts upside -21% · rating +0.67
3 XOM -0.29 VQTA · $148.53 +1.3% 11× EBITDA
+3% FCF · 2.0× sales · Fwd P/E 14×
Mid-cohort: fairly valued, average quality, mid-trend, analysts cautious.
Quality ROIC 5% ND/EBITDA 0.6 · Trend 200d +11% · 52w 65% · RS1y +2% · Analysts upside +15% · rating +0.35
4 OXY SCREEN− -0.68 VQTA · $57.04 +2.8% 6× EBITDA
+6% FCF · 3.0× sales · Fwd P/E 15×
Screen− (bottom of cohort): fairly valued, average quality, mid-trend, analysts cautious.
Quality ROIC 3% ND/EBITDA 1.0 · Trend 200d +16% · 52w 66% · RS1y -6% · Analysts upside +9% · rating +0.40
5 OVV SCREEN− -1.02 VQTA · $57.56 +1.8% 9× EBITDA
+24% FCF · 2.7× sales · Fwd P/E 7×
Screen− (bottom of cohort): fairly valued, weak quality, mid-trend.
Quality ROIC 2% ND/EBITDA 2.8 · Trend 200d +23% · 52w 80% · RS1y +8% · Analysts upside +14% · rating +0.77
SMID E&P small/mid exploration & production · 4 names · click a row for the read
#NameScreenScoreAxes V·Q·T·ARosterPriceValuation
1 RRC SCREEN+ +0.95 VQTA · $38.75 +2.0% 7× EBITDA
+14% FCF · 3.2× sales · Fwd P/E 8×
Screen+ (top of cohort): fairly valued, average quality, mid-trend, analysts cautious — top of its layer.
Quality ROIC 11% ND/EBITDA 0.6 · Trend 200d +0% · 52w 40% · RS1y -37% · Analysts upside +22% · rating +0.37
2 MGY SCREEN+ +0.91 VQTA · $27.83 +2.2% 6× EBITDA
+7% FCF · 4.1× sales · Fwd P/E 11×
Screen+ (top of cohort): fairly valued, high quality, mid-trend.
Quality ROIC 13% ND/EBITDA 0.3 · Trend 200d +8% · 52w 59% · RS1y -16% · Analysts upside +6% · rating +0.54
3 SM -0.40 VQTA · $31.91 +2.0% 7× EBITDA
-3% FCF · 3.7× sales · Fwd P/E 4×
Mid-cohort: fairly valued, average quality, extended or lagging, analysts cautious.
Quality ROIC -8% ND/EBITDA 3.1 · Trend 200d +30% · 52w 83% · RS1y -16% · Analysts upside +10% · rating +0.52
4 TALO SCREEN− -1.45 VQTA · $15.19 +2.6% 9× EBITDA
+13% FCF · 2.0× sales · Fwd P/E 610×
Screen− (bottom of cohort): expensive vs peers, weak quality, on an attractive pullback, analysts bullish.
Quality ROIC -7% ND/EBITDA 2.2 · Trend 200d +24% · 52w 84% · RS1y +33% · Analysts upside +18% · rating +0.54
REFINERS downstream & crack spreads · 3 names · click a row for the read
#NameScreenScoreAxes V·Q·T·ARosterPriceValuation
1 VLO SCREEN+ +1.21 VQTA · $258.92 +1.3% 9× EBITDA
+8% FCF · 0.7× sales · Fwd P/E 12×
Screen+ (top of cohort): fairly valued, average quality, mid-trend — top of its layer.
Quality ROIC 10% ND/EBITDA 0.6 · Trend 200d +30% · 52w 97% · RS1y +60% · Analysts upside -6% · rating +0.59
2 MPC +0.03 VQTA · $266.24 +2.1% 9× EBITDA
+7% FCF · 0.8× sales · Fwd P/E 11×
Mid-cohort: fairly valued, average quality, extended or lagging.
Quality ROIC 9% ND/EBITDA 2.6 · Trend 200d +29% · 52w 99% · RS1y +28% · Analysts upside -9% · rating +0.76
3 DK SCREEN− -1.24 VQTA · $48.02 +2.0% 8× EBITDA
+16% FCF · 0.5× sales · Fwd P/E 21×
Screen− (bottom of cohort): cheap vs peers, weak quality, on an attractive pullback.
Quality ROIC -8% ND/EBITDA 3.7 · Trend 200d +29% · 52w 96% · RS1y +104% · Analysts upside -2% · rating +0.31
SERVICES, DRILLING & TRANSPORT oilfield services, drillers, gas compression, tankers · 6 names · click a row for the read
#NameScreenScoreAxes V·Q·T·ARosterPriceValuation
1 DHT SCREEN+ +1.88 VQTA · $17.12 +2.8% 7× EBITDA
-5% FCF · 5.5× sales · Fwd P/E 9×
Screen+ (top of cohort): fairly valued, high quality, mid-trend, analysts cautious — top of its layer.
Quality ROIC 16% ND/EBITDA 0.8 · Trend 200d +15% · 52w 72% · RS1y +13% · Analysts upside +5% · rating +0.50
2 KGS +0.39 VQTA · $69.54 +3.6% 10× EBITDA
+3% FCF · 5.3× sales · Fwd P/E 23×
Mid-cohort: expensive vs peers, high quality, extended or lagging, analysts bullish.
Quality ROIC 8% ND/EBITDA -0.1 · Trend 200d +47% · 52w 86% · RS1y +70% · Analysts upside +21% · rating +0.89
3 BORR +0.20 VQTA · $4.67 +0.3% 8× EBITDA
-10% FCF · 3.1× sales · Fwd P/E 17×
Mid-cohort: fairly valued, weak quality, on an attractive pullback.
Quality ROIC 4% ND/EBITDA 4.9 · Trend 200d +6% · 52w 60% · RS1y +80% · Analysts upside +22% · rating +0.00
4 NE -0.42 VQTA · $46.92 +1.7% 8× EBITDA
+6% FCF · 2.7× sales · Fwd P/E 16×
Mid-cohort: fairly valued, average quality, mid-trend, analysts cautious.
Quality ROIC 6% ND/EBITDA 1.1 · Trend 200d +23% · 52w 74% · RS1y +28% · Analysts upside -2% · rating +0.06
5 PDS SCREEN− -0.91 VQTA · $97.04 +0.6% 5× EBITDA
+8% FCF · 1.3× sales · Fwd P/E 8×
Screen− (bottom of cohort): cheap vs peers, weak quality, mid-trend.
Quality ROIC -4% ND/EBITDA 1.4 · Trend 200d +27% · 52w 91% · RS1y +61% · Analysts upside +17% · rating +0.46
6 AROC SCREEN− -1.14 VQTA · $36.90 +2.3% 10× EBITDA
+4% FCF · 5.8× sales · Fwd P/E 17×
Screen− (bottom of cohort): expensive vs peers, average quality, mid-trend.
Quality ROIC 9% ND/EBITDA 2.7 · Trend 200d +23% · 52w 84% · RS1y +14% · Analysts upside +15% · rating +0.83
SECTOR ETFS energy ETFs & benchmarks (price-only) · 5 names · click a row for the read
#NameScreenScoreAxes V·Q·T·ARosterPriceValuation
1 XOP ETF SCREEN+ +1.60 VQTA · $166.74 +2.0% ETF — price only
Price-only ETF (no fundamentals); on trend it is middling.
Trend 200d +14% · 52w 68% · RS1y -5%
2 XLE ETF SCREEN+ +0.65 VQTA · $57.90 +1.4% ETF — price only
Price-only ETF (no fundamentals); on trend it is middling.
Trend 200d +14% · 52w 77% · RS1y +0%
3 XES ETF -0.40 VQTA · $124.44 +1.3% ETF — price only
Price-only ETF (no fundamentals); on trend it is middling.
Trend 200d +28% · 52w 87% · RS1y +49%
4 PSCE ETF SCREEN− -0.63 VQTA · $60.45 +1.9% ETF — price only
Price-only ETF (no fundamentals); on trend it is middling.
Trend 200d +20% · 52w 86% · RS1y +15%
5 USO ETF SCREEN− -1.21 VQTA · $128.74 -0.1% ETF — price only
Price-only ETF (no fundamentals); on trend it is middling.
Trend 200d +38% · 52w 72% · RS1y +38% · Analysts upside +96%
Method. Five axes, fundamentals-led: Value 30 · Quality 25 · Trend/Entry 15 · Analysts 15 · Roster 15 (conviction tilt from the tracked thought leaders). Scores are cross-sectional within each peer layer (robust z, re-standardized); SCREEN+ ≥ +0.5σ, SCREEN− ≤ −0.5σ. Relative rankings for triage — which names earn the diligence checklist — never buy/sell recommendations; decisions live at the sleeve level. ETFs score on price/momentum only. Data: FMP. Not investment advice.