Portfolio

	IRR	Same flows would be	Alpha $	IRR alpha
Your book	25.34%	$3,022,146	—	—
S&P 500	20.01%	$2,707,586	+$314,560	+5.33%
Nasdaq 100	25.51%	$3,032,590	−$10,444	-0.17%
Bitcoin	17.49%	$2,567,051	+$455,095	+7.85%
Gold	25.27%	$3,017,436	+$4,710	+0.07%
Bonds	3.60%	$1,884,554	+$1,137,592	+21.74%
60/40	13.27%	$2,344,015	+$678,131	+12.07%
Biotech	22.61%	$2,858,097	+$164,049	+2.73%
AI (AIQ)	30.44%	$3,346,474	−$324,328	-5.10%
Oil (XLE)	15.54%	$2,462,576	+$559,570	+9.80%
Factor blend (40 BTC / 25 QQQ / 15 XBI / 10 GLD / 10 AOR)	20.75%	$2,749,828	+$272,318	+4.59%

Year	Year-end NAV	Return	SPY	QQQ	Bitcoin	Gold	Bonds	60/40	Biotech	AI	Oil
2023	$975,393	+104.5%	+26.2%	+54.9%	+155.8%	+12.7%	+5.4%	+15.7%	+7.6%	+55.4%	-0.6%
2024	$3,771,275	+114.8%	+24.9%	+25.6%	+120.8%	+26.7%	+1.3%	+10.7%	+1.0%	+24.1%	+5.6%
2025	$4,061,192	-5.4%	+17.7%	+20.8%	-6.3%	+63.7%	+7.2%	+16.4%	+35.9%	+31.9%	+7.9%
2026	$3,022,243	-24.9%	+10.1%	+12.3%	-28.0%	-6.3%	-0.6%	+6.7%	+20.7%	+15.8%	+35.0%

Date	Type	Amount	Net contributed
Jan 1, 2023	Deposit	+$102,291	$102,291
Jan 24, 2023	Deposit	+$250,000	$352,291
Feb 6, 2023	Deposit	+$10	$352,301
Feb 10, 2023	Deposit	+$10,000	$362,301
Feb 24, 2023	Deposit	+$10,000	$372,301
Apr 6, 2023	Deposit	+$106,901	$479,202
Nov 27, 2023	Deposit	+$100,000	$579,202
Nov 27, 2023	Deposit	+$100,000	$679,202
Apr 2, 2024	Deposit	+$80,000	$759,202
Apr 9, 2024	Deposit	+$100,000	$859,202
Apr 9, 2024	Deposit	+$50,000	$909,202
Apr 9, 2024	Withdrawal	−$200,000	$709,202
Apr 29, 2024	Deposit	+$500,000	$1,209,202
Dec 10, 2024	Deposit	+$100,000	$1,309,202
Dec 11, 2024	Deposit	+$100,000	$1,409,202
Feb 3, 2025	Deposit	+$350,000	$1,759,202
May 15, 2025	Withdrawal	−$115,000	$1,644,202
Jul 15, 2025	Withdrawal	−$125,000	$1,519,202
Dec 3, 2025	Deposit	+$250,000	$1,769,202
Apr 9, 2026	Withdrawal	−$38,000	$1,731,202

Sleeve	Current	Target	Gap	Action $
AI	16.2%	15.0%	+1.2%	$-35,153
Biotech	16.3%	17.5%	-1.2%	$37,143
Bitcoin	21.9%	22.5%	-0.6%	$17,883
Energy	4.8%	7.5%	-2.7%	$81,118
Fintech	4.8%	5.0%	-0.2%	$5,877
Long/Short	2.9%	5.0%	-2.1%	$63,835
Metals	5.3%	20.0%	-14.7%	$444,409
Income	16.4%	7.5%	+8.9%	$-267,666
Cash	11.5%	0.0%	+11.5%	$-347,446

Holdings · 21 positions

Ticker	Name	Position	Price	Day	Value	Weight	Total
AI $488,489 · 16.2%
TSLA▸	Tesla	1,500 @ $284.69	$311.21	+0.8%	$466,815	15.4%	+9.3%
CORE · horizon: 2-3 years (robotaxi ramp) · REVIEWED Thesis Robotaxi/FSD commercialization is inflecting (statewide Texas launch, 150+ cybercabs/day run-rate) with energy storage as a second engine. The market still prices it mostly as a carmaker. Edge Conviction through drawdowns on the autonomy S-curve; SRS discipline for entries. What kills it Against position: EA26002 escalates; teleoperator dependency into 2027; Cybercab <50K/yr by mid-27; FSD growth <25%. Against our bear model: driver-out fleet >1,000 across 5+ metros; robotaxi revenue >$500M/yr; FSD subs >2.5M by mid-27.
SPCX▸	SpaceX	200 @ $158.41	$108.37	-3.4%	$21,674	0.7%	-31.6%
SATELLITE · horizon: through post-IPO lockups, 2026-27 · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis SpaceX exposure (fund wrapper): Starlink cash-flow inflection plus the launch monopoly, bought around the record IPO. Thesis 6 flags the supply wall (~$1.2T net issuance, lockups mid-July/Aug) so sizing stays modest. Edge Access to the scarcest mega-asset; the discipline is the small size, not the story. What kills it Priced >90x sales at IPO; a Starlink growth miss or lockup-driven supply break re-rates it hard. Exit discipline on the trigger board.
Biotech $491,739 · 16.3%
QURE▸	UniQure	3,750 @ $24.06	$43.63	+3.4%	$163,612	5.4%	+81.3%
CORE · horizon: to BLA decision + launch, 2026-2028 · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis AMT-130 for Huntington's: 3-year data accepted as the BLA primary basis (75% cUHDRS slowing), filing 3Q26. Rare-disease structural base rate 17% with a NAMED reason to sit above it - that is what passes the EV gate and justifies anchor sizing. Edge Base-rate honesty plus pre-committed add triggers (clean Type-B, 4-yr data), never article momentum. What kills it CRL or clinical hold on manufacturing/safety, negative 4-year data, or the FDA reversing its acceptance stance.
CLPT▸	ClearpointNeuro	7,000 @ $12.37	$14.94	+2.5%	$104,580	3.5%	+20.8%
CORE · horizon: rides QURE catalyst plus platform adoption · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis ClearPoint is the delivery-platform partner for AMT-130 (and other MRI-guided neuro therapies): the picks-and-shovels expression of the gene-therapy-delivery bottleneck, without single-asset binary risk. Edge Every approved neuro gene therapy needs delivery; CLPT monetizes procedures regardless of whose drug wins. What kills it AMT-130 failure (near-term correlation is high), or a rival delivery standard displacing the platform.
TWST▸	Twist Biosciences	600 @ $86.78	$91.55	+0.2%	$54,930	1.8%	+5.5%
SATELLITE · horizon: 2-3 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis DNA synthesis platform leader: tools/picks-and-shovels on synthetic biology and AI-designed proteins, monetizing research volume regardless of which therapeutic wins. Edge Platform economics vs binary clinical risk. What kills it Price competition eroding gross margin; cash burn without operating leverage.
LLY▸	Eli Lilly	30 @ $1,163.77	$1,148.50	-0.5%	$34,455	1.1%	-1.3%
CORE · horizon: 3-5 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis GLP-1 franchise dominance (tirzepatide plus the oral pipeline) with the deepest obesity/metabolic moat in pharma. The quality-compounder ballast of the biotech sleeve. Edge Low-beta (0.5) anchor that lets the sleeve hold higher-risk names elsewhere. What kills it Oral GLP-1 competitive miss, pricing/policy shock (IRA expansion), pipeline gap after 2030.
TXG▸	10x Genomics	650 @ $40.67	$47.27	-4.4%	$30,726	1.0%	+16.2%
SATELLITE · horizon: 2-3 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Single-cell/spatial genomics tools leader trading near cycle lows on funding-driven revenue weakness; recovery play on research budgets plus new platform cycles. Edge Buying the tools leader in a downcycle. What kills it Structural (not cyclical) demand loss; failed platform transitions; continued cash burn.
TEM▸	Tempus	700 @ $44.33	$43.87	-0.9%	$30,709	1.0%	-1.0%
SATELLITE · horizon: 2-3 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis AI diagnostics/clinical-data platform: the data-moat play on AI-in-medicine, monetizing sequencing plus records at scale. Edge Rare pure-play on clinical AI data network effects. What kills it Reimbursement pressure, data-rights litigation, or unit economics failing to improve with scale.
RGEN▸	Repligen	200 @ $125.39	$141.01	-1.8%	$28,202	0.9%	+12.5%
SATELLITE · horizon: 2-3 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Bioprocessing picks-and-shovels: consumables for biologics/gene-therapy manufacturing, recovering from the post-COVID destocking cycle. Edge Volume-based, approval-agnostic biotech exposure. What kills it Prolonged destocking, share loss to integrated suppliers.
SANA▸	Sana Biotech	5,000 @ $3.94	$3.13	-3.7%	$15,650	0.5%	-20.6%
LOTTERY · horizon: catalyst-dependent · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Hypoimmune cell-therapy platform (islet-cell T1D data). Part of the correlated basket (SANA/PRME/ABCL) counted as ONE bet under the concentration rule. Edge Optionality only; sized as a lottery per EV-gate discipline. What kills it Basket rule: a 0.5% ticket that halves with NO new catalyst is dead money - cut, do not average down.
PRME▸	Prime Medicine	5,000 @ $3.88	$2.92	-3.3%	$14,600	0.5%	-24.7%
LOTTERY · horizon: catalyst-dependent · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Prime-editing platform optionality. Same basket as SANA/ABCL - one correlated bet on early-stage genetic medicine. Edge Optionality only. What kills it Basket rule as SANA; platform data failure or a financing wall.
ABCL▸	AbCellera	2,500 @ $7.76	$5.71	+0.3%	$14,275	0.5%	-26.4%
LOTTERY · horizon: catalyst-dependent · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis AI antibody-discovery platform with partnership economics. Third leg of the correlated basket. Edge Optionality only. What kills it Basket rule; partnership revenue failing to convert into clinical value.
Cash $347,446 · 11.5%
Cash	Cash				$347,446	11.5%
Bitcoin $662,122 · 21.9%
BITB▸	Bitcoin	19,400 @ $33.69	$34.13	-2.9%	$662,122	21.9%	+1.3%
ANCHOR · horizon: full cycle, into 2027-28 · REVIEWED Thesis Thesis 7: Bitcoin four-year-cycle accumulation. Institutional structure (spot ETFs, record LTH holdings) plus deep-value model reads (composite below -1, ~0.5x fair value) argue the 2026 bear is a bottoming process, not a secular top. BITB is the clean spot vehicle without leverage. Edge Patience plus model-gated DCA at levels most flows are selling; no leverage, no credit risk. What kills it A structural adoption break (ETF regime reversal, US hostility), or price action invalidating the cycle frame (no bull by late 2027). Adds are trigger-gated, never narrative-gated.
Long/Short $87,278 · 2.9%
ORR▸	ORR Long/Short ETF	2,250 @ $36.88	$38.79	+0.7%	$87,278	2.9%	+5.2%
UTILITY · horizon: rolling · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Long/short ETF as a beta damper: keeps equity exposure while cutting net beta in a book that runs hot (realized beta ~3x vs SPY). Edge None claimed; risk architecture. What kills it Sustained negative alpha vs simply holding cash plus index (check in sleeve attribution).
Income $494,340 · 16.4%
STRC▸	STRC	4,400 @ $94.38	$89.46	-0.0%	$393,624	13.0%	-5.2%
CORE · horizon: income leg, indefinite while covered · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Strategy's 12% preferred. Dividend reserve more than doubled to ~$2.55B (~17-18 months coverage, board-approved floor), first-ever buyback authorizations, ~5-6x over-collateralized by the BTC stack. Drawdowns have been flows-driven, not credit-driven. Edge Structurally senior to the equity with self-healing yield mechanics (price down = yield up = buyers return toward par). What kills it A dividend cut, reserve drawdown without replenishment, or BTC falling below the ~8%/yr appreciation path that covers the dividend long-term.
SGOV▸	T-bills	1,000 @ $100.67	$100.72	+0.0%	$100,716	3.3%	+0.0%
UTILITY · horizon: rolling · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis T-bill parking for cash above the working floor; 4%+ yield instead of idle-cash drag (R7 rule). Edge None claimed; this is cash management. What kills it n/a
Energy $145,457 · 4.8%
FCG▸	Natural Gas ETF	2,500 @ $29.48	$29.35	+1.9%	$73,375	2.4%	-0.4%
SATELLITE · horizon: 1-2 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Natural gas equities: gas is the marginal fuel for AI-driven power growth and LNG export capacity keeps ramping. Complements VST (generator) with upstream exposure. Edge Same power-demand thesis, different node of the value chain. What kills it Sustained sub-$3 gas from associated-gas oversupply; LNG project delays.
PSCE▸	Small Cap Energy ETF	1,250 @ $59.03	$57.67	+1.9%	$72,082	2.4%	-2.2%
SATELLITE · horizon: 12-18 months · REVIEWED Thesis Small-cap E&P basket: cheap on cash flow, levered to the oil geopolitical tail (thesis 3 residual: war-resumption risk after the Iran MOU) without single-well risk. Edge Asymmetry: soft floor from valuation, fat tail from Hormuz/Israel re-escalation. What kills it Thesis 3 conviction is 38% with WTI well below the $89 floor; if the tail closes (durable peace plus glut), this is dead money - exit per trigger board.
Metals $160,040 · 5.3%
CEF▸	60/40 Gold & Silver	4,000 @ $40.87	$40.01	-2.1%	$160,040	5.3%	-2.1%
CORE · horizon: multi-year (fiscal regime) · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Thesis 5: debt debasement. ~$30T gross Treasury issuance, interest expense compounding ~12%/yr vs ~1.6% nominal GDP, every curve point above the average debt cost. Gold plus silver in one discounted closed-end vehicle. Edge Hard-asset ballast that has actually worked (gold +64% in 2025); the CEF discount adds a second return source. What kills it Credible fiscal consolidation or a sustained positive real-rate regime with falling issuance.
Fintech $145,236 · 4.8%
BSOL▸	Solana	12,000 @ $11.69	$9.97	-2.2%	$119,640	4.0%	-14.7%
CORE · horizon: 1-3 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Solana staking exposure. SOL is the leading high-throughput stablecoin/payments rail (tokenized stocks +3,300% y/y, mostly on Solana) and the most credible settlement layer for agentic-payment volume if that thesis matures. Staking yield compounds while waiting. Edge Yield-bearing exposure to the strongest non-BTC usage story. What kills it Sustained loss of stablecoin/payments share to Base or others; a second credible outage era.
COIN▸	Coinbase	175 @ $194.16	$146.26	-10.6%	$25,596	0.8%	-24.7%
SATELLITE · horizon: 2-4 years · DRAFT — deep dive pending Thesis Crypto infrastructure equity: Base L2, x402 agentic-payments protocol authorship, custody and on/off-ramp economics. The cleanest equity capture of stablecoin/agentic settlement growth regardless of which token wins. Edge Equity value capture where token value capture is weak. What kills it Fee compression outrunning new revenue lines; regulatory reversal on staking/custody; x402-class volume failing to materialize by 2028.

Click any row for the position thesis: role, horizon, edge, and the pre-committed falsifiers. DRAFT = summary seeded from the thesis corpus, full deep dive pending.