BTC Signal Model — Power-Law + Mayer + MVRV + Macro

The Bitcoin Space · 2026-06-12

Accumulation zone — buy on a schedule, prefer plain bitcoin over the leveraged versions65% odds this is the bottoming zone; the final low is likely not in yet

Bitcoin sits near $63,400 — 19% below its 200-day moving average (the standard long-term trend line) and roughly half of this model's fair value — with crowd sentiment at extreme fear, which has historically been a better time to buy than to sell. The timing consensus across three independent analysts is that the final low arrives between August and October 2026, so steady scheduled buying beats a lump sum. Two cautions. First, a new seller has appeared: bitcoin miners are selling coins to fund their pivot into AI computing — supply pressure the usual cycle story does not account for. Second, the fragile link is not bitcoin itself but the leveraged corporate structure built on it (MicroStrategy and its STRC preferred stock): prefer the plain bitcoin fund BITB over the leveraged names.

Bitcoin $63.4k = 19% below its 200-day average ($78.0k) and 0.54x the model's fair value ($117.2k); the model composite reads -1.20 (buy zone) and the crowd-fear gauge is 12 of 100 (extreme fear).
The February lows are the line in the sand: climbing back above the 200-day average confirms the bottom; losing the February lows again denies it.
Bear case (Wadsworth of Northstar, our chart service): low-$30,000s — which would be the first cycle low below a prior cycle's peak, a possible regime change, and far below everyone else's estimate.
MicroStrategy watch: the dollar reserve paying the STRC dividend covers 7 months (down from ~2 years in February, per the company's own dashboard); the stock trades at 1.19x its bitcoin. STRC sits at $96.79, mildly below its $100 par.

Voices: Benjamin Cowen (quantitative crypto analyst — October low most likely), InvestAnswers (analytics channel — Aug-Oct), Jeff Walton of True North (our designated risk anchor on MicroStrategy), Michael Saylor and Adam Cole (steady scheduled buying), Quinn of Forward Guidance (the miner-selling watch)

Dissent: Wadsworth is far more bearish on magnitude (low-$30k's). Jordi Visser (former hedge fund chief) rejects calendar timing entirely — he re-enters only when price breaks back above its trend line AND capital visibly rotates in; he is not yet positioned.

Changes my mind: Bitcoin reclaims its 200-day average with broad participation, or Strategy rebuilds its dollar reserve toward 2-3 years of dividend coverage.

Last change: 2026-06-12 — miner-selling supply pressure added; Visser's condition-based timing logged as dissent; odds unchanged

How to read this page

Bitcoin's price has historically grown along a curve (a "power law" fit to its full price history) — the model treats that curve as fair value and measures how far today's price sits above or below it. Distances are in z-scores: 0 is normal, -1 is unusually cheap, +2 is unusually expensive. Several independent gauges are blended into one composite, and the verdict only says BUY or SELL at extremes — everything in between is HOLD with a lean. F&G is the Fear & Greed index, a 0-100 crowd-mood gauge where low numbers mean fear (historically a better time to buy than greed).