BTC Signal Model — Power-Law + Mayer + MVRV + Macro

How to read this page

Bitcoin's price has historically grown along a curve (a "power law" fit to its full price history) — the model treats that curve as fair value and measures how far today's price sits above or below it. Distances are in z-scores: 0 is normal, -1 is unusually cheap, +2 is unusually expensive. Several independent gauges are blended into one composite, and the verdict only says BUY or SELL at extremes — everything in between is HOLD with a lean. F&G is the Fear & Greed index, a 0-100 crowd-mood gauge where low numbers mean fear (historically a better time to buy than greed).

—

DEAL SCORE (0 = fair · negative = cheap · positive = expensive)

—

Crypto Fear & Greed — market sentiment · 0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed

extreme fear → buy zoneextreme greed → trim

—Bitcoin Dominance — BTC's share of total crypto market cap · market context, not scored

Buy Rule

Buy when deal score drops to−1.0σ

Sell Rule

Sell when deal score rises to+1.5σ

Cooldown between signals13 wk

σ = the blended deal score, not price vs trend. Fires on crossing in, then waits the cooldown.

BTC Price vs Power-Law Fair Value

Where the model would buy / sell

Deal score — the line that actually pulls the trigger

Net liquidity vs BTC