NDX / SPX is the closest to its trigger at 0.13% away.
Each ratio votes -1, 0 or +1. A ratio inside a 1% band around its threshold votes zero, so noise does not manufacture signal. The score falls when the market moves against the thesis, which is the entire point: a monitor that can only go up is a confirmation engine, not a test.
| Ratio | Current | Threshold | Distance | 3m | 6m | 12m | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX / SPX Big-cap tech vs the broad market |
3.7751 | 3.7700 stated | 0.13% above the line | -1.5% | +2.5% | +3.1% | neutral |
why this one matters, and where the line came fromThis is the single most falsifiable number Northstar gave. It is a clean binary with a stated level and no chart-pattern interpretation required. Threshold: Northstar's own stated level, logged 2026-08-01. Confirms when the ratio is below it. Series has 3917 aligned observations through 2026-07-31. “if we break below about 3.77 on the ratio” — Northstar, Market Round-Up 2026-08-01 | |||||||
| Gold / SPX Gold vs stocks |
0.5484 | 0.5020 48-mo MA | 9.24% above the line | -14.6% | -19.8% | +3.8% | confirms |
why this one matters, and where the line came fromThe core of the thesis. If gold is not beating stocks, the rotation is not happening regardless of what any other ratio does. Threshold: Derived, not stated. Trailing 48-month simple moving average of monthly closes. Northstar cites the 48-month average as his own tool; fixing the rule mechanically means the line cannot be moved after the fact. Confirms when the ratio is above it. Series has 3917 aligned observations through 2026-07-31. “gold outperforming the S&P, three touches of resistance” — Northstar, Market Round-Up 2026-08-01 | |||||||
| RSP / SPX Equal-weight vs cap-weight S&P |
0.028707 | 0.031717 48-mo MA | 9.49% below the line | +2.3% | +0.6% | -0.9% | disconfirms |
why this one matters, and where the line came fromMeasures whether the market is broadening out of the mega-cap concentration. Independent of gold, so it is a genuine second vote rather than a restatement. Threshold: Derived, not stated. Trailing 48-month simple moving average of monthly closes. Northstar cites the 48-month average as his own tool; fixing the rule mechanically means the line cannot be moved after the fact. Confirms when the ratio is above it. Series has 3917 aligned observations through 2026-07-31. “the dome pattern downside target has been reached” — Northstar, Market Round-Up 2026-08-01 | |||||||
| Gold / Silver The gold-silver ratio |
71.28 | 65.00 stated | between 65 and 75 | +15.5% | +26.8% | -21.9% | neutral |
why this one matters, and where the line came fromNorthstar gave BOTH sides here, so it is explicitly two-way falsifiable. Above 75 is a disconfirming read for the risk-on-hard-asset case and must be displayed with equal weight. Two-sided call with a gap in the middle. Below 65 is his bullish branch, above 75 is his bearish branch. At 71.28 it is inside the dead zone, so it votes zero rather than being scored off the nearer edge. Threshold: Northstar's own stated level, logged 2026-08-01. Confirms when the ratio is below it. Series has 4059 aligned observations through 2026-07-31. “above 75 opens 87-89; below 65 targets 61 then 33” — Northstar, Market Round-Up 2026-08-01 | |||||||
| XLE / Gold Energy equities in gold terms |
0.014500 | 0.017806 48-mo MA | 18.57% below the line | +14.4% | +34.8% | +11.3% | disconfirms |
why this one matters, and where the line came fromDirectly relevant to Ian's oil position. If energy cannot outperform gold, the commodity-rotation leg of the thesis is not paying. Threshold: Derived, not stated. Trailing 48-month simple moving average of monthly closes. Northstar cites the 48-month average as his own tool; fixing the rule mechanically means the line cannot be moved after the fact. Confirms when the ratio is above it. Series has 3917 aligned observations through 2026-07-31. “a 26-year bear market, watching for the breakout” — Northstar, Market Round-Up 2026-08-01 | |||||||
| BTC / Gold Bitcoin in gold terms |
15.297 | 21.302 48-mo MA | 28.19% below the line | -9.2% | -13.7% | -55.7% | confirms |
why this one matters, and where the line came fromDirectly relevant to Ian's BTC exposure. Note the polarity: Northstar breaking down here is CONFIRMING for his thesis but BEARISH for a core Ian position. Do not conflate the two. Polarity conflict: Confirming for Northstar, negative for the book. Threshold: Derived, not stated. Trailing 48-month simple moving average of monthly closes. Northstar cites the 48-month average as his own tool; fixing the rule mechanically means the line cannot be moved after the fact. Confirms when the ratio is below it. Series has 3571 aligned observations through 2026-07-31. “near a new breakdown against gold” — Northstar, Market Round-Up 2026-08-01 | |||||||
| Copper / SPX Copper vs stocks |
0.005282 | 0.005139 48-mo MA | 2.78% above the line | +5.4% | +0.6% | +22.0% | confirms |
why this one matters, and where the line came fromCPER is an ETF on futures and carries roll drag, so it is NOT a clean proxy for the $6.55 to $8 call. Treated as directional context, not as a scoring of his price target. Caveat: ETF roll drag: CPER understates spot copper over long horizons. Threshold: Derived, not stated. Trailing 48-month simple moving average of monthly closes. Northstar cites the 48-month average as his own tool; fixing the rule mechanically means the line cannot be moved after the fact. Confirms when the ratio is above it. Series has 3697 aligned observations through 2026-07-31. “copper futures $6.55 heading to $8” — Northstar, Market Round-Up 2026-08-01 | |||||||
Do gold and silver miners underperform the metal? Northstar claims gold/silver miners underperformed silver by roughly 87% in the 1970s and roughly 77% in the 2000s.
The claim holds for the first leg only and reverses afterwards, so it does not generalise. Quoting the whole window as one number would hide the reversal.
The 1970s leg cannot be checked with available data. It needs the Barron's Gold Mining Index; XAU and HUI are not on FMP, and GDX and SLV both begin in 2006. So the 87% figure is unverified here and is neither confirmed nor denied.
Did banks in gold terms lead the 2008 top? Northstar claims bank stocks priced in gold broke down in 2005-06 and led the 2008 equity top.
Directionally supports the lead-indicator idea. Both series peaked in gold terms 39 months before their nominal peaks.
The specific 2005-06 framing is wrong. The gold-terms peak was 2003-07 for BAC and 2004-02 for XLF, so by 2005-06 the decline was already well underway. The signal was earlier and slower than described, which makes it much harder to trade than the framing implies.
FMP daily closes 2003-01-01 to 2010-12-31 for BAC, XLF and GCUSD. Monthly closing ratio; peak month of the gold-denominated series compared with the peak month of the nominal USD series. Computed once from a closed historical window. The inputs cannot change, so this is not refetched on every build.
Of 7 calls logged as of 2026-08-01, 3 carry a stated level and direction and 4 are conditional hedges. Hedge ratio 57%. A hedge ratio above 50% means most of the commentary is not scoreable, and the confirmation count below should be read with that discount.
Thresholds are pre-registered in a versioned config file (v1.1.0, last edited 2026-08-01). Every change appends a dated reason. This matters because the underlying commentary has drifted over time and that drift is invisible unless the old levels are kept.
Where Northstar stated a number, the number is used verbatim and marked "stated". Where he described a chart pattern instead of a level, a mechanical 48-month moving average of monthly closes is substituted and marked "48-mo MA". Chart-pattern language such as dome patterns, Ichimoku clouds and Fibonacci extensions is deliberately not implemented; the out-of-sample evidence for those tools is weak, whereas relative performance measured in gold terms requires believing nothing.
Sources: FMP end-of-day closes and FRED daily series, the same feeds the rest of this site uses. No new data vendor and no model inference. Short attributed quotes only.
Not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation, and the author of the underlying commentary is not affiliated with this site.