Real Estate

The land and buildings under the three ACM stores. Not an independent property bet: value and demand track the boat business, so this bucket is read through the consumer cycle (thesis 8), not housing macro. Counting it as diversification double-counts ACM.

Homes the family lives in. Consumption, not investable capital — outside the allocation question.

The only bucket housing macro governs. Current stance (thesis 9, 65%): keep what we own, judged on its own yields; no new levered residential purchases.

Housing macro is unattractive for new money: home prices are roughly flat in dollars while inflation runs above 3%, so real prices are falling without a headline crash. The 30-year mortgage near 6.5% costs more than rental properties yield (~5-6%), so a new levered purchase starts underwater on carry. Stance: keep the rentals, read the dealership buildings with the business, fill the real-estate target through recovery and time, not new buys. The trigger that flips this: a 30-year mortgage sustained below 5.5% (on the trigger board), or distress deep enough that day-one carry is positive. Caveat: values above are gross — the mortgage schedule is not loaded yet, so net equity is overstated.